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Next Level: Cougars need polarizing Matt Carlino to make ‘the leap’

EVAN: The difficulty here is that we’re trying to rationally explain or understand the thought processes of irrational fans. Fans who harbor some vitriolic grudge against Carlino are probably, by and large, careless thinkers, who construct their opinions around the magnitude of their emotional reactions. It goes something like this:

A Carlino turnover or ill-advised deep three sends them into a mad rage, because that’s something they can see and instantly assess. (“We used to have the ball, and now we don’t,” or in their vernacular, “HOLD ON TO THE %*$& BALL, CARLINO!”) On their emotional reaction scale, plays like this register between an eight and a ten out of ten.

What they don’t see or can’t quickly comprehend is that Craig Cusick, the player Carlino just replaced on the floor, spent five possessions running through the offense, attempting to probe the defense and ultimately failing because of a lack of athleticism and creativity. But hey, Cusick would just pass it off to Davies in the post and see if Davies could get a bucket. If Davies missed his running hook in the lane, they could yell at that. (“We could have scored, but then we didn’t because we failed to put the spherical object through the metal cylinder,” or more appropriately, “PUT THE BALL IN THE %$*& HOOP, DAVIES, YOU STIFF!”)

Sure, Carlino breaks down the zone defense with a drive into the key, but then he kicked it out to Nate Austin, who swung it around to Brock Zylstra, who hit an open three. No assist, no made basket and, in fact, no easily recognizable basketball accomplishment at all for Carlino. Zylstra made the shot, and that’s all that matters to our hypothetical fans.

If you happen to be sitting two rows in front of one of these fans, you probably got to hear his loudly and roughly articulated thought process as it happened, and you could briefly sum it up: Cusick is awesome. Carlino sucks. Davies also sucks. And Zylstra is awesome. Of course, that would be the exact opposite of the truth.

All of this is probably tedious, because you sit next to fans like this at games all the time. You read their opinions in comment sections of Deseret News articles, and they’re retweeted into your Twitter timeline by someone you once respected.

BEN: But I think there’s something deeper going on here that has nothing to do with Carlino himself. During Jimmermania and the 2011 season, BYU saw a massive influx of new fans — fans who were mostly uneducated about the BYU program and college basketball in general. With Jimmer gone, there was a massive hole at the point guard spot — and Carlino, coming in as a highly touted transfer from UCLA, was expected to immediately fill that void.

But Carlino isn’t Jimmer — and he never will be. He’s a more skilled passer and defender at this point in his career, and a much less consistent scorer. He actually is closer to a traditional point guard than Jimmer, despite his proclivity for the occasional bad shot. But when fans see him pull up and take those deep threes — or try to go one-on-one — and fail, they think he’s trying to replace Jimmer or even be Jimmer.

They get caught in this paradoxical hypocrisy, where they both want him to be a more “traditional point guard” and stop taking those shots and they want him to be the next Jimmer and be a dominant scorer. Unfortunately, at this point he’s somewhere in the middle, which makes him an easy target.

EVAN: I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that, if swag was a basketball thing that matters (and if you’ve ever watched Russell Westbrook play, then YEAH, IT MATTERS!), Matt Carlino is the only player on the entire roster who has any.

I mean, the move he puts on the Baylor player starting at 40 seconds in this YouTube video — have you ever seen anything so Brandon Jennings that wasn’t actually done by Brandon Jennings? Who else on BYU’s roster is making that move and then stomping back down the court like a ticked-off territorial gorilla? “YOU CAME HERE? YOU CROSSED MY LINE AND YOU ENTERED MY DOMAIN AND YOU TRIED TO STOP ME FROM DOING WHAT I WANT IN MY HOUSE? BEST GO BACK WHERE I CAN’T REACH YOU, CHILD.”

Carlino Swag, guys. It’s a thing, and it matters.

STEVE: Two things:

a) That YouTube video is amazing in all the best ways, and it’s only made more amazing when you consider that the Baylor clip you noted is from Carlino’s first ever college game. But then again, I may be even more impressed with the clip directly after that — where he blows past his defender in transition and slings a one-handed bullet pass diagonally across the lane, between two guys and into the waiting hands of Noah Hartsock, all while his momentum carries him out of bounds. He spits hot fire, y’all.

b) I’m glad you brought up Russell Westbrook, because I’ve thought for a long time that he was an apt comparison for Matt. Perhaps not in his actual abilities — Westbrook is a physical freak of nature who, pound-for-pound, is probably the second most athletic player in the NBA, and his game relies heavily on that advantage. Carlino is obviously not anywhere near Westbrook athletically, but they’re very similar in the way they approach the game and in the way fans react to them:

Both are high-usage point guards who spend an inordinate amount of time with the ball in their hands.

Both want to relentlessly attack the defense as much as possible, and that level of aggression can sometimes result in frustrating turnovers.

Both have the good (and ill) fortune of playing with hyper-efficient wing scorers — which, in a basketball sense, can draw defenses’ attention and open things up for Westbrook and/or Carlino to use their considerable abilities to operate one-on-one. Unfortunately, this also often results in fans blaming them when anything goes remotely wrong, usually because the “selfish point guard” didn’t give Durant and/or Haws the ball enough. (Whether Durant and Haws really want to take a significantly higher volume of shots and risk hurting their efficiency is a discussion for another day.)

There are more similarities, but those are the main dynamics. It seems that both face the same difficult situation, especially when it comes to public opinion. Yet Westbrook has finally started to receive widespread recognition as one of the league’s very best players in recent years. What do you guys think Matt needs to do to follow in those footsteps at the collegiate level?

BEN: Frankly, I think a sad number of BYU fans have already made up their minds, and no matter what Matt does to improve his game, they’ll think Anson Winder should be starting at point guard.

That being said, much like an earlier version of Russell Westbrook, Matt’s bailout shot is a pull-up midrange jumper that doesn’t seem to go in very often. If Matt could turn that shot from a weakness into a strength (similar to Westbrook’s now patented elbow pull-up J), he could probably get an extra 2-4 points a game.

Not to belabor the Russ comparisons, but one of the most impressive things about Westbrook’s progression is how he continues to get better and better at breaking down defenses in the half court. Early on in his career, Westbrook relied almost completely on his athleticism and utilizing that athleticism in transition to get buckets and shots for his teammates. This past season he really took a leap forward in terms of taking on defenses in the half court and then creating shots for his teammates.

Similarly, Carlino has proven to be an excellent transition floor leader, but I think he can improve when taking on half-court defenses. Matt sometimes gets stuck when he can’t get all the way to the basket, which normally results in a fadeaway 13-footer — a terrible shot (unless you’re Dirk Nowitzki.)

When Matt does get to the basket against a half court defense, he sometimes has trouble finishing, and other times he focuses too much on finishing without looking for a guy to pass to for an easy basket. Probably more than anything else this year, I’m looking for Carlino to improve his decision making when breaking down half-court defenses, something the team is going to need without a dominant post player to feed in the half-court.

STEVE: That’s probably a good transition into a way to end this discussion before it reaches north of 5,000 words: What do you expect from Carlino this year? What will his role be on this very young team? Where do you think he’ll be able to excel, particularly in ways he hasn’t previously? What area of his game needs the greatest amount of improvement if the Cougars want to succeed? And lastly, what are you most looking forward to watching from Matt over the next six months?

BEN: I really expect Carlino to take on more of a leadership role this season. After Haws, he’s the second longest tenured starter and the second most important player on the team. Matt has to be a leader both on and off the floor — both vocally and through his play — and a big part of that is going to be his consistency. He’s been such a streaky player the last two seasons, and I’ve defended that inconsistency as a product of his youth and inexperience. That is no longer a sufficient excuse.

Carlino has to score at least 15 points a night on a consistent basis, instead of seven points one night and 22 the next. Teams in the WCC need to fear his three point shot and respect his drive to the basket. He absolutely has to be the second best player on this young team night in and night out, or else it’s going to be a long season for Coach Rose.

EVAN: Besides Haws, who’s going to score on this team? Last season, BYU scored 77 points per game. That’s 18th in the country. But looking at the current roster and doing some simple math, it’s hard to see how BYU can match that without a dramatic increase in Carlino’s scoring. Even if Haws averages 25 a game (an insane four-point increase from an already impressive points per game number), how is this team going to muster 52 points from the other ten guys with Carlino averaging 12 points, as he did his first two seasons?

Now the Russell Westbrook comparisons become even more appropriate. This team has two really good players, and a collection of unproven young guys and/or limited role players. On a bad Carlino night, BYU will look disturbingly similar to the sans-Westbrook Thunder team that lost to Memphis. So Ben’s right. There can’t be many bad Carlino nights.

But again, Carlino Swag. I really don’t believe there will be many bad Carlino nights. If anything, I think his skill set is far more congruous to a heavier load and a higher usage rate than he had in his first two seasons. He improved from his freshman to his sophomore year, and in a role he’s more comfortable with, he’ll only keep getting better.

STEVE: I think we’re on the same page here, and that’s comforting because it makes me feel less like a crazed fanboy. Carlino has consistently improved throughout his time at BYU, and he has done so on the fly, learning from his mistakes in the spotlight. This needs to be the year he takes that next leap to being a consistently formidable player that opponents fear, and a true second option behind Haws offensively.

He needs to find a way to maintain his aggressiveness — both in looking for his own shot and in setting up his teammates — while limiting the frequency with which that aggressiveness leads to turnovers. He needs to continue to wreak havoc in the passing lanes while shoring up his man-to-man defense in on-ball situations. He needs to continue to bring his fierceness and hustle on every single play, setting an example for the youngsters who will look to their veteran point guard to set the tone. These are all realistic improvements that represent the next logical step in Matt’s progression.

Make no mistake — Matt Carlino is absolutely essential to the success of this year’s squad. As Ben and Evan both touched on, after Tyler Haws, there’s a huge question about who can help fill the 29 points per game void left behind by the departed Davies, Zylstra and Cusick. I suspect Kyle Collinsworth will play a sizable role in helping to fill that hole, but we can’t be entirely sure until we see him play for the first time in two-plus years. (We don’t have a great indicator of his ability to be a prominent piece at the D-I level in the first place — he played a very limited role on that Jimmer-fueled 2011 team. That certainly doesn’t mean he can’t or won’t, but the sample size is limited thus far.)

All of this adds up to the same conclusion: No matter what anyone else does, BYU only goes as far as Matt Carlino takes them. If he makes the leap, there could be great things in store. If he doesn’t, he’ll continue to be the main culprit for fans’ disappointment — and this time, legitimately so. Who knows? Maybe an ardent supporter like myself will even become disillusioned.

But I don’t expect that to happen. I expect him to lead. I expect him to disprove his haters. I expect him to rise to the challenge.

I believe in Matt Carlino.

Want more hoops action? Get your fix by reading more player profiles from our 2013-2014 season preview:

The cerebral Kyle Collinsworth
BYU newcomer Frank Bartley knows the importance of family
Non-traditional Anson Winder a perfect fit for BYU system
The Tyler Haws Offense: Can BYU’s star scorer carry them alone?
What’s Cooler Than Being Cool: Nate Austin and the 3-point shot
Freshman Eric Mika expected to fill big shoes
Josh Sharp: Come for the dunks, stay for the dirty work
Skyler Halford: More than just a deep threat
Happy Days: Luke Worthington and the power of fun

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24 Comments

  1. Brett Hein

    October 2, 2013 at 3:00 pm

    Carlino’s performance in the NIT, the Washington game specifically, represents most everything BYU fans want him to be. It just so happens he has the talent to do it — but not every game sets up quite so nicely as that game did. Since he was a sophomore last season, I expect more games like those to emerge. Carlino also began WCC play very well last year.

    But as you said: “If he doesn’t, he’ll continue to be the main culprit for fans’ disappointment — and this time, legitimately so.” In weighing his strengths and weaknesses against his age/experience, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. But improvement needs to continue, or many will be even less patient.

  2. Sanpete

    October 2, 2013 at 6:05 pm

    Excellent discussion. Carlino is by far the team’s best point guard based on performance, and it’s silly for fans to think others would be better. He moves the ball down the flow faster than anyone else, whether by pass or dribble. He makes some amazing passes in the half-court, and his aggressiveness in passing is part of what leads to turnovers, but he has significantly improved his assist-to-turnover ratio as he has gained experience.

    There are a couple interrelated things I’d like to know more about. Coach Rose has said things seeming to indirectly suggest Carlino is deficient as a team leader, and at the same time (for reasons best known to him) praised Collinsworth’s leadership and said he intends to play Collinsworth at point. That seems to me to be a major story in this preseason. Is Collinsworth supposed to compete for Carlino’s role on the team? Rose has quelled such concerns to some extent with suggestions that both will play at the same time and share point duties in some natural way, but it would be easy for Carlino to see this as a sign of lack of confidence in his play and leadership. Maybe no one outside the team has any way to address those points.

    • Sanpete

      October 2, 2013 at 6:19 pm

      flow => floor

    • Steve Pierce

      October 2, 2013 at 10:25 pm

      This was certainly a cause for concern for me a few months back, and I think you’re right that no one outside the team can truly answer these questions. However, in recent months we’ve seen Rose’s tone shift subtly. He has stopped talking so much about KC as a “point guard” and instead emphasizing how he can be a playmaker from several spots on the floor. I think this probably reflects a growing realization that KC is going to have to play a lot of 3 and 4 to compensate for our lack of depth inside — something that wasn’t guaranteed until we failed to land Aytes or any other post help. That development has probably stemmed the KC-as-point guard wave, but I do think Kyle’s playmaking from the wing positions will help shoulder some of Matt’s load and free him up to score more efficiently. Overall, I think everyone can win here, but we’ll wait and see.

      • Sanpete

        October 2, 2013 at 10:37 pm

        Good points all. I look forward to seeing how it all works out.

  3. Greg Rose

    October 2, 2013 at 8:50 pm

    Enjoyed the discussion. Great point about casual fans not recognizing that Carlino often creates the drive and kick that leads to an eventual bucket he gets no direct credit for. His ability to create is essentially. Hopefully this year KC can help shoulder some of that playmaking load which can help increase Carlino’s efficiency.

    • Steve Pierce

      October 2, 2013 at 10:26 pm

      Thanks for the kind words, Greg. I totally agree. If KC can bring some playmaking to the 3 and 4 spots, Matt should be freed up to play a bigger scoring role, getting easier buckets in the process.

  4. Fdnman

    October 3, 2013 at 5:28 am

    Nice pro Carlino kool-aid drunkin’ article. I actually don’t disagree with alot of the points. However it does totally disregard or ignore the multiple times Carlino gets totally out of control. It isn’t that he committed a turnover or hucked up a three. It is the way it feels when you know he his going one step faster than his brain and body should be going at the time. It is like the Virginia game with the new GFGH mentality. It just feels a bit frantic and out of control. Pulling back just slightly would be more effective without losing the edge. I think another year of experience will give Carlino what he needs. The ability to slow things down around him while still playing at the same level. Staying in control and lifting up the other players around him at the same time. Hears hoping for a great year.

    • Brett Hein

      October 3, 2013 at 8:46 am

      Like they discussed, he plays hard ALL THE TIME, which is great — except when it isn’t. I agree with this point of yours, Fdnman. If he appeared more under control prior to his early-in-the-clock three, it would be more palatable. It does really feel at times like he’s more than just full-tilt, that he’s lost control.

  5. Adam Mangum

    October 3, 2013 at 12:28 pm

    One quibble. I don’t agree with a statistical comment made above.

    “..the facts say that Matt Carlino very well may be the best passing point guard — or player of any position — in the history of Cougar basketball.”

    The facts say no such thing. The facts say he’s accumulated assists and is the career leader at BYU in assists per game, and at his current pace, he will be the career assist leader at BYU. But being a great passer and acumulating assists are not entirely correlated. Having great teammates who make shots helps, and the style of offense will determine if assists are put primarily into one players stat line or are spread out more evenly.

    I think he’s a good passer, but not elite. His assist percentage is below average for a point guard (he ranked 97th in the country in assist percentage last season), and his assists per game are nothing spectacular in the modern era.

    As far as BYU history goes, saying he very well may be the best passing point guard in BYU history is extremely debatable. For example, Matt Montague averaged 7.2 APG in 2002 and Nathan Call averaged 6.4 in 1992. Carlino has not averaged close to either figure, even if his career average is the highest in school history. Now, Call and Montague were seniors when those seasons happened, and Carlino very likely may have a great statistical assist season like that in his future. But he doesn’t yet.

    And to say he very well may be the best passer in BYU history is crazy talk — Danny Ainge is laughing in his office in Boston.

    Please keep in mind I am definitely not a Carlino hater. But let’s not twist facts to make the point that he’s good. He’s likely continue to get better. I think the reason so many fans get on Carlino is that they expect him to be an elite point guard, and he’s not that yet. But fan expectations are not his fault — he’s a fine player, and has the talent to become more. We should all be content with that.

    • Brett Hein

      October 3, 2013 at 12:36 pm

      The hope — mine at least — is that we get more of that Carlino vs Washington. Man, was he dealing. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joeHIwpxOo8

    • Steve Pierce

      October 3, 2013 at 4:57 pm

      Adam, I think you make some good points, but I don’t agree with all of them.

      When I said he “very well may be the best passing point guard in BYU history,” I meant that he may end up as the best passing point guard, as statistically measured by assists. Was my wording a little sloppy? Sure. Granted. But I still don’t think that claim (when worded more carefully) is wrong. I’m sympathetic to your lament that assists can’t fully measure a player’s passing ability. You’re right, they don’t — but we simply don’t have another statistical metric that gets anywhere close. It’s the best we’ve got, so we’ll have to roll with it — and Matt is on track to have elite assists numbers when it’s all said and done.

      As far as his assist percentage being “below average” because he ranked 97th nationally — there are currently 351 D-1 schools, meaning there are approximately 4,563 scholarship players in total. In that context, ranking 97th seems well above average. And even if we just look at point guards, 97th out of 351 starting point guards wouldn’t be anything to sneeze at either. So I think that line of argument is disingenuous.

      Regard Montague and Call, you’re right that Matt hasn’t put up the kind of assists numbers that they did at their statistical heights. But he’s been better than them earlier than them and more consistently than them thus far, and I think that’s worth quite a bit. And I have no reason to believe he won’t continue to improve.

      All that said, I think Matt is more than just a “fine” player. He is a very good player with some noticeable flaws that can certainly be improved upon moving forward — as we just spent 5,000 words discussing. I expect him to do so and become even better. But your mileage may vary.

  6. Gayle

    October 3, 2013 at 6:19 pm

    The situation with Matt Carlino kind of reminds me of when I was on my mission. My companion and I both played the piano, and were in a small branch without many pianists, so we were constantly being asked to play the piano. The issue was that my comp couldn’t read music very well, and played everything by ear in the same key, so if the hymn was a familiar one he played it, and if it was unfamiliar, I was sight reading. Needless to say everyone thought he was such a great pianist, when in reality I was much better than he was.
    Yes Carlino has turnovers, but most point guards do, that is why assist to turnover ratio is really a better statistic than just straight turnovers. Carlino’s A/TO ratio was 1.7 last year, which is the best of any returning player. Ideally you would like for the ratio to be over 2 for a point guard, but I’m not going to fault him for trying to force a few plays which is usually where his turnovers came from (as opposed to dribbling the ball off his foot, or just getting his pocket picked). You have to think if the other players can become more consistent weapons on offense, then there will be fewer reasons to try a force a pass into one or two scorers.

    • Steve Pierce

      October 4, 2013 at 7:45 am

      Smart take, Gayle. I totally agree. Thanks for reading!

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  8. justin whiting

    October 5, 2013 at 9:37 pm

    Love this discussion about Carlino! Thank you for showing him some love. I live in Bloomington, Indiana and am a pretty die hard fan of both my Hoosiers and the Cougs. I saw him play a couple of times in high school and the kid can play! I once saw him kind of, split two defenders with a spin move around his back at the three point line, then drive to the bucket. It was one of those, what just happened, kind of plays that was awesome.

    Some people get on Matt about moving here in high school then graduating early after decommitting to IU and then jumping ship at UCLA too, when all that tells me is that Matt just wants the chance to play. And him quickly leaving a program at UCLA that appears to be in shambles, says something to me about his character that he chose BYU.

    I think that even the announcers (including a current mission president now in Indiana), were way too critical of Carlino. Sure, he has been very streaky, but he runs the team better than any other guard on the team for sure. Side note: I loved when he and Cusick would play together. Cusick seemed to be a calming influence, on Matt, but Cusick didn’t control the floor like Carlino but he didn’t turn the ball over either.

    Maybe it’s just me, but I thought that Coach Rose would pull Carlino very quickly after any kind of mistake early in games last year? I am just a casual fan without any real basketball knowledge, but it seemed like Coach Rose didn’t let him play though his mistakes an learn from them sometimes. I almost got the feeling that Rose and others were always just kind of waiting for him to make a mistake so that they could “coach him” on the sidelines. I hated having to see Cusick running the team early in the game while Carlino sat on the side.

    Final thoughts, how often have we had someone with the kind of talent that Carlino posses. He committed to the Indiana Hoosiers after his freshman year of high school, for crying out loud! I think he has a chance to do some very special things for two more years here and I love the way he plays. As you mentioned, he has his faults, but he does a lot of things right. He plays hard. Makes some bad decisions. But he has the ability to light it up, like few others on the team. Quit comparing him to Jimmer, people!

    I totally agree that in order for the Cougars to do much of anything this yeat, Carlino has to be the number 2 guy on the team every night. Haws needs him to draw attention and keep defenses honest and I expect nothing but great things from Carlino this year.

    I too, believe in Carlino.

    • Steve Pierce

      October 6, 2013 at 10:14 pm

      All great points, Justin. I especially agree that Rose was very quick to pull Matt early in games last year. I don’t think that helped him build confidence in his decision-making by working through the mistakes in game situations, and was ultimately harmful and made him unnecessarily tentative at times. I hope it changes this year.

      • David Walton

        October 7, 2013 at 3:02 pm

        My concerns with Carlino have little to do with his athletic ability but more with his attitude. He seems pretty moody and it appears to effect his decision making. I would like to see him play with energy and enthusiasm but be a little more mentally tough. When he makes mistakes they are so blatantly obvious that they are difficult for even the most uninformed fan to ignore.

  9. Steve

    October 9, 2013 at 3:35 pm

    OK – let’s make a more appropriate comparison. When I watch Kevin Pangos I see someone with less talent than Matt, but who always seems to make good decisions on the court. I also like Matt and think he is the key to this team’s performance. I just feel like the mental part of the game is behind the physical part, which is fantastic. But with experience, hopefully, comes better decision-making. I’m sure the frantic pace as which BYU plays has something to do with this, but that calming influence provided by an experienced playmaker is going to be important to this young team.

  10. SloppyJ30

    December 16, 2013 at 3:00 pm

    I’m joining this discussion a little after-the-fact, but I find myself firmly in the anti-Carlino camp. I think the Utah game just slammed that home for me. Fifteen shots in 20 minutes? Only three of them actually going in? ZERO assists? Yes, it’s one game, but it was a microcosm of what we Carlino haters love to gripe about in a nice bow. No player is truly “consistent,” but his results are all over the map. You can’t tell me you don’t wonder before each game which Carlino will show up, even half by half. However, I would grudgingly agree that there really is no better option right now. As a holdover until the Emery years, he’s our guy.

    I do have something of a problem with the dismissive implication, made several times in this piece, that if you aren’t on the Mattwagon, well, you must not really know basketball and are likely just another lukewarm holdover from the Jimmer years. I call balderdash. I don’t buy that preferring efficient PG play over, yes, “hero ball” is the symptom of poor basketball knowledge. It’s telling to me that at one point Carlino is compared to Brandon Jennings, a player I have little use for and who I predict will never be the starting PG for an NBA contender. But I digress.

    You refer to Matt as “improving.” One-third of the way through his junior year, do you still see improvement? I mean, without jumping through all kinds of mental hoops and grabbing your buddies for a “safety in numbers” crutch? During his freshman year, I thought the guy had an outside chance at a pro career, but that was assuming a reasonable level of improvement. That hasn’t happened. Yes, his assists are up a tick over last year, but it seems he’s plateaued. He’s a 40%, high volume shooter, who sits at a ghastly 28% (!!) on threes this season and 32.5% for his career. When you point out that getting a shot up is better than a turnover, you imply that only two options exist . . a turnover or a lousy shot. That’s a false choice. It’s not a matter of “holding the ball,” which you seem to believe is the dumb fan’s preference – it’s a matter of attempting to run some type of play, even a simple pick and roll, instead of deciding in the backcourt “Yep; time for me to shoot!” and not even considering how the D is positioned, where his teammates are, or the game situation. Right now you’re thinking “Hey, that’s not what he does!” but I would hope that even his fan club members could admit that the guy frequently suffers from tunnel vision.

    I have high hopes for Nick Emery, though it’s all imaginary at this point. I can’t find any reliable data on his career stats, but my impression is that he willingly sacrificed his own scoring to set up talented teammates, taking over when necessary and when desirable to keep defenses honest. I don’t think Carlino processes that way. I picture his mind as a laptop with loose connections, possibly infected by malware which often produces a pop-up that states simply “I AM AWESOME!” at which time the rim should prepare itself for the impact of another ball flung from 25 feet or from some weird angle.

    Snark aside, my eyes tell me Carlino is a very talented dude, certainly more so than Zylstra or Cusick before him. This may seem uncharitable, but if anything his talent makes the results seem even worse. Those guys new their limitations, whereas Matt doesn’t seem to feel like he has ANY limitations. If he’d just take his foot off the gas, say, 10% of the time and at least TRY for the “easy” play, I’d probably be on your side of the debate. Taking a deep three or an off-balance runner early in the shot clock is all fine and well . . if they go in at a reasonable clip. Carlino’s do not. A certain amount of playground swagger and unpredictability can be an asset, but only when they’re based on a sound fundamental core and inherent discipline. I’m not seeing either.

    • Sanpete

      December 16, 2013 at 7:50 pm

      Not a good game for Carlino, but why should he be singled out? Hard to get assists when teammates aren’t making their shots either. Haws and Collinsworth only hit 3/11 each, a little better than Carlino’s 3/15, but not enough to be thinking you need to pass more to them. Basically, if you didn’t get a pass in to Mika in that game you weren’t likely to get an assist.

      • SloppyJ30

        December 17, 2013 at 9:19 am

        He should be singled out because that game was one glaring example of a broader trend, that trend being extreme inconsistency. I don’t want to overweight the results of one game, but it’s hard to believe a half-decent PG can’t find ONE opportunity in a game to give a teammate a layup. Yes, they were all awful, so it may be a bit of a chicken and egg argument, but if he was setting guys up with bunnies, they wouldn’t miss ’em all. If he’s as good a creator as his supporters seem to believe he is, you’d think he could use that ability break down the D for an assist or two in place of some of his 15 shots.

        I think a lot of the back and forth can be stripped away by just stating what should be obvious at this point: He’s a lousy shooter. His raw percentages are hideous across the board, and getting worse. Dismissing his shot selection issues by stating “well, no-one else can create a shot,” as this piece does, makes no sense. It’s not really “creating” (creating rebounds doesn’t count) if you dribble around with your head down and end up lobbing up a “shot” that has a 20-25% chance of going in. I’m guessing that’s roughly his percentage if you take away open looks.

        I can live with the turnovers, and he’s admittedly a solid defender. That’s what’s so painful . . he’s clearly capable, he just makes too many indefensible decisions and saddles himself with a degree of difficulty in the process.

        The numbers state he’s the worst, least efficient shooter on the team BY FAR (for example, he’s taken 22% more shots than Tyler Haws and his PPS is 1.04 vs 1.47 for Haws). Those facts are indisputable. If Carlino fans just want to ignore efficiency completely and insist that “creating” misses is an overall plus becase, hey, a miss is better than a turnover, we’ll just have to agree that we understand basketball differently.

        Full disclosure: My POV may be colored by the way I played in HS and the fact that I grew up on Mr. Efficiency, John Stockton. I was the starting 3 for a Utah HS that made it to the state final (losing to Shawn Bradley’s Emery team) playing a slow, methodical style that emphasized efficiency and suffocating halfcourt D. I used to love guarding guys that played a Carlino-like style, because I knew they’d beat themselves half the time. You want to “create” an off-balance three with my hand in your face? It’s all you, buddy.

      • SloppyJ30

        January 2, 2014 at 10:54 am

        . . and now he’s 13-52 on FG’s in his last four games with seven total assists. The good news is that Coach Rose seems to be tiring of the joke as well, as, Matt has only played half the game versus LM and Pepperdine.

        Hey, I don’t root against the guy. I’d love for him to turn it around. I just don’t see any evidence that that’s likely to happen, except in bursts. He’s the most frustrating BYU player I’ve ever watched. Right now he’s just putrid.