Loyal Cougars

Advanced Stats: BYU has good shot at beating Notre Dame

How many points will Notre Dame score? First, how many points has BYU given up:

BYU Defensive Points Given Up vs Opponents Offensive Rank

Team O Ranking BYU D points allowed
Virginia 103 17
Texas 44 21
Utah 35 20
Middle Tennessee 74 10
Utah State 46 14
Georgia Tech 18 20
Houston 41 32
Boise State 22 20
Wisconsin 13 27
Notre Dame 24 ??
Nevada 52 ??

For the most part, BYU’s defense has been living up to Bronco Mendenhall’s 24-points-or-less goal this year. BYU has also faced and performed well against several offenses ranked very close to Notre Dame’s 24th-ranked unit. The Cougars were able to hold 18th-ranked Georgia Tech, 22nd ranked Boise State and 35th-ranked Utah all to 20 points. The best offense, 13th-ranked Wisconsin, was able to put 27 up on BYU.

Notre Dame Offensive Points Scored vs Opponents Defensive Rank

Team D Ranking ND O’s points
Temple 110 28
Michigan 43 23
Purdue 92 24
Michigan State 3 17
Oklahoma 32 21
Arizona State 19 30
USC 5 14
Air Force 116 45
Navy 100 38
Pitt 29 21
BYU 10  ??
Stanford 6  ??

Notre Dame’s offense has played against some really good defenses and some really bad defenses. Four Notre Dame opponents have defenses that rank in the 90 or worse, and the Irish have played two teams with defenses ranked in the top 10 and only scored 14 and 17 points against them. The Irish’s best offensive performance of the season may be the 30 points they scored against 19th-ranked Arizona State. Notre Dame fans likely hope to see a performance more like that as their last two opponents, BYU and Stanford, are also ranked in the top 10.

 

Hopefully that provides some grounded expectation for each offense and each defense. When BYU’s defense has played the kind of offenses that Notre Dame has, they’ve given up about 24 points. When Notre Dame’s offense has played the kind of defenses BYU has, they’ve scored about 17 points. That’s a bit more optimistic for BYU that what Las Vegas thinks. Casinos opened by favoring the Irish by one point, but have now switched to favoring BYU by a point instead.

It seems reasonable that fans of either team going into a game with a one point spread will be able to make arguments that their team will win. The raw data here seems to give BYU a good chance, but since injuries, improvement, decline or even home field advantage, special teams or defensive scores aren’t really considered here, the expectation of a Notre Dame win is certainly a reasonable outcome as well.

On Monday night, Bronco Mendenhall summed up his view on the game by saying, “It is not a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, but it is a great opportunity and we intend to do the very best we can,” and that seems like a pretty fair expectation as well.

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2 Comments

  1. Wes

    November 19, 2013 at 2:00 pm

    Has anyone told Notre Dame about this data? Maybe they’ll forfeit.

  2. Jeff

    November 20, 2013 at 1:08 pm

    Don’t get emotional Wes.