Loyal Cougars

Advanced Stats: BYU faces uphill climb against Huskies

Washington Defense

The Husky’s defense has given up points to elite offenses. They’ve faced four offenses in the top 30 and given up at least 30 points to each of them. Unfortunately for BYU, its 48th-ranked offense is more comparable to UW opponents Illinois (39), Oregon State (41), Arizona (47), and Washington State (57). Particularity worrisome is that the Husky defense played especially well against Arizona, whose playbook would line up pretty closely to BYU’s after Robert Anae’s two year stint there.

UW-D-pts-given-up

 

Washington Offense

The UW defense can afford to give up a few more points than BYU’s because its offense scores points, even against elite defenses. BYU’s 16th ranked defense will be, statically, the second-best that the Huskies have seen this year. Washington put up 28 points in a tough loss to the best defense it played, 7th ranked Stanford. BYU’s defense has been able to keep the Cougars in games this year, but this game looks to be particularly tough for them.

UW-offense-points-scored

 

Comparing BYU to the other teams Washington has played, the margin of victory is about the same as from BYU’s, but in a bit higher scoring game: 27-24, again in favor of the Huskies.

Given those statistics, the fact that Huskies are favored by 3 points in Las Vegas should not be surprising.

For BYU to win, it will probably need the kind of offense that showed up in Logan and kind of defensive performance BYU was able to put up against Georgia Tech; in short, its best performances of the season. While the BYU offense had a rough November, the Cougars showed signs of life in second half of the Nevada game, scoring four touchdowns in four possessions.

So Washington appears to be correctly favored. BYU could win in an upset as a three-point deficit is not insurmountable. But it looks as if it will definitely take a great effort and the right Cougar team showing up.

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